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 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....

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Dwhat



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:24 pm

Coachmac wrote:
CoachDJR wrote:
That's interesting? Probably makes Dalhousie 2nd best team in the NE but depending on the score make them end up 3rd in NE.

In terms of provincial rankings it probably puts DRHS in at the 8th spot. Although you might put them higher since they and JMA will be moving on the provincials where are St. Stephen and Fundy will both miss the playoffs in their conference despite probably being as strong if not stronger.


JMA will finish 2nd in the NE regardless of the outcome of the Tantramar game. My two inured starters should also be fine, by the end of this week.

Were those starters there this weekend against Dal?
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Coachmac



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 24, 2012 3:25 pm

Dwhat wrote:
Coachmac wrote:
CoachDJR wrote:
That's interesting? Probably makes Dalhousie 2nd best team in the NE but depending on the score make them end up 3rd in NE.

In terms of provincial rankings it probably puts DRHS in at the 8th spot. Although you might put them higher since they and JMA will be moving on the provincials where are St. Stephen and Fundy will both miss the playoffs in their conference despite probably being as strong if not stronger.


JMA will finish 2nd in the NE regardless of the outcome of the Tantramar game. My two inured starters should also be fine, by the end of this week.

Were those starters there this weekend against Dal?

One of them got hurt in the Sugarloaf game, Friday night. She played a bit in the 1st and 4th versus Dal. The other got hurt in the 1st half and didn't play at all in the second.
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Metta Peace



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:43 pm

Coachmac wrote:
Dwhat wrote:
Coachmac wrote:
CoachDJR wrote:
That's interesting? Probably makes Dalhousie 2nd best team in the NE but depending on the score make them end up 3rd in NE.

In terms of provincial rankings it probably puts DRHS in at the 8th spot. Although you might put them higher since they and JMA will be moving on the provincials where are St. Stephen and Fundy will both miss the playoffs in their conference despite probably being as strong if not stronger.


JMA will finish 2nd in the NE regardless of the outcome of the Tantramar game. My two inured starters should also be fine, by the end of this week.

Were those starters there this weekend against Dal?

One of them got hurt in the Sugarloaf game, Friday night. She played a bit in the 1st and 4th versus Dal. The other got hurt in the 1st half and didn't play at all in the second.

Sad that we cannot have the best 8 teams go a Regional tournament. We are so concerned about regional representation that we miss the point. I agree with representation to a certain point but not at the expense of leaving stronger teams out. How about the four conference winners advance and a committee rank the next four and send them along based on strength of schedule , results, etc. In combined conferences send the top 2 from each and rank the other four. We use to rank all 8 at one time. Some teams are getting auto berths and really not doing a thing to improve themselves or play quality games, not playing teams out of conference, etc. We are penalizing teams for playing a solid schedule and putting alot more effort into their program.
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poolie



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PostSubject: Agreed   Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:55 am

I totally agree with the previous post about the way things are set up you could even expand it to sweet 16 or elite 8. Rank them regardless of Division and let them battle it out loser goes home, deepest team wins.
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CoachDJR



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:09 am

I don't really think that it is necessary to send the 7th best team vs the 9th best team. If you are a legitmate contender to win and advance you will qualify.

Do some teams make it to a regional or provinicial based on luck of the draw and where they are situated? Probably but life's not fair either.

If you can't finish top 4 in your conference/region do you really think we need to find a way to get them into the final 8 provincially?

I think the only issue might be interlocked leagues (and I don't think that is a huge issue). You could let teams play in conference regardless of size 2 or 3 or 11 whatever without having to interlock. They could then control the rest of their schedule and travel. THen let the most you can reasonably advance to regionals. You get the best of both worlds (imo). You get to see who is legitmately the top 4 in each region in Feb., then you can play off regions at provincials.

I'm not opposed to interlocked schedules but they do cause issues. Scheduling is one. Since you may not know if you will interlock until well into the fall then you have to juggle schedules that are already made. Interlocked leagues mean more travel, more weekends playing games that may or may not mean anything rather than meaningful games for your kids, and tricker reschedules. It also means that being 15 points better than someone in November is more likely to be more important then losing to them by 12 in Jan. I don't think anyone can argue that there are more than 16 teams in each division working to earn a playoff spot so if you ensure a regional they all get their kick at the can in Feb. Nov-FEb about developing the team; FEb about who has what?

All that said I don't think the system is broken. The best 4 teams province wide are almost always the last 4. I wouldn't want to see a rule changed just so my kids or anyone elses could "qualify" more often. Our province really isn't big enough for me to excited about being the x = 6th-8th-14th-etc best team in our division. If we've got a chance to win a provincial title thats great for the kids and school. If we're one of the top programs in the province regardless of school size that is great for the program. If our kids are the best they can be and giving themselves opportunities to make choices in regards to basketball, school, life and their future (rather than having to deal with closed doors) I'm happy.
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poolie



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PostSubject: It would add more excitement   Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:16 pm

Having it expanded to include more teams would more exciting for the kids. Just being included in sudden death play-offs would be exciting for them. Win, you keep playing. Lose you are done. If you are one of the lower seeds, the odds of pulling off more than one upset in a row have to be really low. The better teams are going to prevail 90 percent of the time anyways. It just keeps them honest.
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celtic



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:29 pm

poolie wrote:
Having it expanded to include more teams would more exciting for the kids. Just being included in sudden death play-offs would be exciting for them. Win, you keep playing. Lose you are done. If you are one of the lower seeds, the odds of pulling off more than one upset in a row have to be really low. The better teams are going to prevail 90 percent of the time anyways. It just keeps them honest.

Isn't that what we have now in regionals and sectionals. Lose your 1st round in regionals and your out and lose in sectionals at all and your out. Maybe we should just give the whole province a title so everyone is happy!! orrr maybe some weaker programs need to look at what they are doing wrong so they can compete in the future.
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poolie



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:37 pm

Just have to figure out how to get a bunch of people to move out of Fredericton Moncton and St. John and disperse the population evenly. Then everyone would be equal....... I dont want everyone to win a provincial title. Thats just plain nonsense. I was thinking take the top 16 boys teams in province have them play tournament. Lose your out. Win you keep playing. It would be exciting playing it that way. Only one winner.
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celtic



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:45 pm

poolie wrote:
Just have to figure out how to get a bunch of people to move out of Fredericton Moncton and St. John and disperse the population evenly. Then everyone would be equal....... I dont want everyone to win a provincial title. Thats just plain nonsense. I was thinking take the top 16 boys teams in province have them play tournament. Lose your out. Win you keep playing. It would be exciting playing it that way. Only one winner.

That a bunch of crap....yes, Fredericton has a good variety to pick from but they also ave very good basketball programs. Harvey, GM, McADAM, Woodstock....they don't have those big numbers and always seem to have pretty competetive teams. WHS competed at Aitken 2 yrs against Fredericton...compare the populations there!
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Huios30



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PostSubject: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:23 pm

"That a bunch of crap....yes, Fredericton has a good variety to pick from but they also ave very good basketball programs."

Just one question: would it be fair to assume that the student athletes of Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton have access to a greater population of potential coaches than a smaller, rural area? The foundation of good programs is good coaches and it just might be true that cities have a greater proportion of very competent coaches to lead and coach student athletes.

I won't even raise the issue of how many more facilities/services municipalities possesses than rural areas.
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celtic



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:42 pm

Huios30 wrote:
"That a bunch of crap....yes, Fredericton has a good variety to pick from but they also ave very good basketball programs."

Just one question: would it be fair to assume that the student athletes of Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton have access to a greater population of potential coaches than a very small, rural town. The foundation of good programs are good coaches and it just might be true that cities have a greater proportion of very competent coaches to lead and coach student athletes.

I won't even raise the issue of how many more facilities/services municipalities possesses than rural areas.

No, it wouldn't be fair to assume that at all. Correct me if i am wrong but BNB offers coaching courses numerous times a year. Where do the coaches come from in all the small communities that have good quality teams every year? Do they transport them in from the city? Excuses get us nowhere. Believe me, I am not from any city but i certainly do not hold anythiing against Fredericton for example for having a good basketball program.
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Huios30



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:26 pm

Excuses? I`m struggling to understand how that is an excuse

You can`t tell me that we Frederictonians don`t have a greater number, proportionately, of teachers or coaches or referees than say Chipman or Hartland. We definitely do.

Some smalls towns have no coaches and no referees.

This is not a saying the quality of coaching in Harvey is not on par with Saint John--or any place for that matter, but more a noting of proportion and numbers.



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poolie



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PostSubject: Moving   Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:59 pm

If I had tons of money and didnt need a job I would have moved along time ago to a larger community just so my kids could have an opportunity to play a higher caliber basketball. For the most part the kids are more dedicated to basketball year round in Fredericton or Riverview. I definatley am not knocking them, I think that these programs are awesome and produce great players. It is exactly what they should be doing. They have the dedication of some great coaches year round.
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20yearcoach



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:27 am

CoachDJR wrote:
A -

1-GM
2-JCS
3-Caledonia
4-Harvey
5- Petti
6- Stanley
7- Tvhs
8 - Canterbury

AA

1-Rothesay
2- Tantramar
3 - CNHS
4 - RNS
5 - SVHS
6 - JMA
7 - St. Stephen
8 - Fundy

AAA

1/2 - FHS/RHS
3 WHS
4 LHHS
5 BMHS
6 KVHS
7 St. Macs
8 Sussex

Any changes from this list from a week or so ago?
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CoachDJR



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:22 pm

Only few changes this week:

A
1 - Gm
2 - JCS
3 - Caledonia
4 - Harvey
5 - Petti
6 - Stanley
7 - Tobique
8 - Canterbury

AA
1 - RHS
2 - Tantramar
3 - RNS
4 - SVHS
5 - CNHS
6 - St. Stephen
7 - JMA
8 - Dalhousie

AAA

T1 Riverview
T1 Fredericton
3 Woodstock
4 BMHS
5 LHHS
6 KVHS
7 St. Macs
8 Sussex
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celtic



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:42 pm

CoachDJR wrote:
Only few changes this week:

A
1 - Gm
2 - JCS
3 - Caledonia
4 - Harvey
5 - Petti
6 - Stanley
7 - Tobique
8 - Canterbury

AA
1 - RHS
2 - Tantramar
3 - RNS
4 - SVHS
5 - CNHS
6 - St. Stephen
7 - JMA
8 - Dalhousie

AAA

T1 Riverview
T1 Fredericton
3 Woodstock
4 BMHS
5 LHHS
6 KVHS
7 St. Macs
8 Sussex

I think in A TV should be #3 or 4 at the lowest
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CoachDJR



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:10 pm

[quote="celtic"]
CoachDJR wrote:
I think in A TV should be #3 or 4 at the lowest

Explain to me who they can beat on that list ahead of them or sould be ahead of?

I repsect the fact that they have been to the Aitken centre the last two years but what have done lately without your stars of previous years? As far as I an tell from their scores they've beaten some teams that will not make the playoffs or be in the discussion for top teams in the province?

Caledonia/ Harvey have been way closer to JCS then any score I've seen between JCS an TVHS. They barely beat Canterbury last time out. TVHS lost to Petticodiac early in the year.

To be fair there are not a lot of head to head score to compare them and the rest of the field ahead of them. Who do you see them being ahead of?
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39forever



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:36 pm

[quote="CoachDJR"]
celtic wrote:
CoachDJR wrote:
I think in A TV should be #3 or 4 at the lowest

Explain to me who they can beat on that list ahead of them or sould be ahead of?

I repsect the fact that they have been to the Aitken centre the last two years but what have done lately without your stars of previous years? As far as I an tell from their scores they've beaten some teams that will not make the playoffs or be in the discussion for top teams in the province?

Caledonia/ Harvey have been way closer to JCS then any score I've seen between JCS an TVHS. They barely beat Canterbury last time out. TVHS lost to Petticodiac early in the year.

To be fair there are not a lot of head to head score to compare them and the rest of the field ahead of them. Who do you see them being ahead of?

You are right on DJR, they haven't beaten anybody ahead of them, they are doing well to stay at the rank they are until they beat somebody ahead of them.
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celtic



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:48 pm

jeez...you guys really take this stuff serious....don't ya? I believe TV only lost to JCS in ex play by 19 or so at the beginning of the year. I don't think they are likely to be ahead of Cal but I believe you wiill find the reamining 3 or 4 spots a pretty tight race between TV, Harvey, Stanley and I'll even throw Canterbury in there.
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AA Fan



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Tue Jan 31, 2012 5:16 pm

Alot of questions should be answered this weekend. JCS is hosting a tourney and GM , Harvey and TV will all be there with St Stephen and Dalhousie. We will see how the dust settles on this one. It should dhed some light on how this will play out over the next couple of weeks.
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lombardi



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PostSubject: AA   Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:37 pm

Can anyone compete with Rothesay High in AA? How will Tantramar stack up?
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CoachDJR



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PostSubject: Re: 2011-2012 Girls Predictions.....   Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:18 pm

Rothesay is really in control of that.

If you can keep them from running by limiting turnovers and making sure of things with safety then assuming you defend in the half court it is really about their shot makers making shots.

Collette will get hers regardless, but if you can make them take contested shots it really depends on how many they make. They've got more athletism, length and depth of shot making then the other AA teams. They are limited by their lack of general depth (only 8-9 players) only.

Are they beatable in AA? In an one and done scenario anything could happen, but you are talking about a team that would easily be a top 5 team in AAA. I don't think you could put any other AA team at that level.
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