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 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season

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12321



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PostSubject: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:26 pm

[quote="Aball"]Asked around to get some 4A Boys info and the consensus was that the top three in the strong zones would be:

South- LCI, Med Hat, Cardston
Calgary- Churchill, McNally, O'Byrne
Edmonton- Ainlay, O'Leary, Ross Shep
[/quote]

This was getting jumbled up in that other post so I thought I'd start a new thread for high school boys.

I would agree with Aball. This is also what I've heard as the consensus.

I think that as a result of the national tournament being held in Edmonton this summer, there is a lot more talk among college coaches than usual about Alberta's elite players. Its also interesting that those players come from all over the province in both 4A and 3A so I've put both groups in this thread. It appears that there are a number of 3A teams that should be more than a little bit competitive with top 4A teams this year although everyone seems to agree that the top 2 4A teams are at another level ahead of everyone else. That 2 team race battling it out for an Alberta 4A provincial title should be between HA out of the north and LCI in the south. Most believe the top player in the province this year is HA's ‪Awak Piom‬ who should be dominant and college coaches may have a hard to keeping him north of the border next year. He's joined at HA by ‪Aher Uguak‬ who is regarded by nearly everyone as the top underclassmen in Alberta. With a solid supporting cast HA should be heavy favorites to repeat. O'Leary and Ross Sheppard will compete for second.

In the south, LCI may have something to say about HA's title chances because they have a strong group themselves led by UofL prospect Saren Westrop and Team Alberta guard Mason Gibb. They should be right there for top spot in the province and will run away with the south title by a wide margin. I suspect WC will be forced back to 4A this year after ending a very talented 2 year run with 4A and 3A provincial appearances but without a championship banner. I can't see them being allowed to play 3A as long as WR Myers is staying in the Med Hat 3A league. They lost a lot of fire power graduating 7 seniors but will be right in there with everyone else battling for silver in what should be a very competitive south league outside of LCI. They'll join the Logan Spuryt led Mohawks, the Tim McMahon led Zeniths, Cardston, Raymond, Chinook and Catholic Central in vying for second.

In Calgary, the Derian Valdes led SWC is getting a lot of notice and seems to have everyone's attention. McNally brings back Ivan Ikomey to lead a strong group, Ernest Manning will be led by pg Adian Saunders and BOB, who probably brings the most team orientated group back, will all be in the mix.

4A Top 5
1. HA
2. LCI
3. O'leary
4. SWC
5. EM

There is a lot of talk about 3A teams although probably more accurately, 3A players. A couple of bigs, Cole Knudsen out of Barrhead and grade 11 Jeff Rodehutskors out of Chestermere are considered solid post secondary prospects and should lead their respective teams back to provincials. Chesteremere brings most of their squad back that won provincials against WC at WC last year but they have work to do to get out of their zone. Holy Trinity Academy out of Okotoks brings back almost all of their main players for a run with a senior heavy team including pg Dylan Wheeler and forward Nate Wall along with a number of skilled bigs from a group that impressed by finishing 4th at provincials at WC. Another grade 11 Jake Nielson out of Cochrane is considered by many coaches to be the top underclassmen in the province after Ainlay's Uguak. WR Myers may drop off a bit with a strong core graduating but should be in the mix for provincials once more most likely because of the small number of south zone teams. It wasn't apparent at provincials what Sturgeon or Edmonton Christian would bring back although I understand St Albert will have a very strong group of returning players as will Ponoka in the central.

3A Top 5
1. Chestermere
2. Holy Trinity
3. Cochrane
4. St Albert
5. Ponoka

I'd like to hear more about Edmonton teams other than Harry Ainlay since they seem to be the hot topic that everyone already knows and talks about.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:27 pm

You seem
To be pretty accurate with your info across the province

I'm
Pretty sure most would agree with alot of your points

Harry ainlay will be an absolute force
They are the champs and return 3 starters who are all big time players
In addition to that - rumor has it that they have recruited in players from other nearby schools to play for them

Lci will be in the mix to "challenge"
Ainlay only because They have the best player in Alberta in Westrop

While piom has more upside - saren is the most dominant force right now in Alberta - combine that with gibb and 7 other returnees - they should be rolling to
Contend and will
Be one of the few (maybe 3 teams that can beat ainlay)

Next In line will be oleary - they lose 3 starters
But they have the twin towers who I've hear have each put on 20 lbs of muscle each - Ogot Ogot was already a nightmare last year for teams as a grade 10
- combine that with two u15 provincial team players and their returning size and the addition of Dusan kovacevic (6'10 pf from Serbia jr national team ) and they might have an nba sized front court

Bishop obyrne is another dangerous team
They narrowly missed out on the asaa provicials last year but people forget their best player didnt play a second and is back now
Combine that with some key additions and they should have the best backcourt in Calgary with great coaching

Ross shep will be super athletic
But lack of size will prevent them from
Consistently beating the top 5 teams
Especially 4 in a row to win it all
They will definitely be super fast
Skilled
Well coached
And will beat you if you're not ready to play

Bishop McNally will be calgarys version of Ross shep
Tonnes of skills
Speed
Talent
But they seem to be a bit too undisciplined to win the key big games ( case in point prov quarter vs shep last year)

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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:26 pm

O'Leary sounds interesting. I've heard about the Ogot twins.

Who are the two u15 provincial team returning players? Does that mean they are a grade ahead of their birth year(going into grade 11) if they're returning to O'Leary after playing U15?

Dusan Kovacevic would be a game changer.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:44 pm

3A is generally pretty accurate too. St Albert will be good this year with top players. So will Sturgeon and Edmonton Christian.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Sat Sep 20, 2014 4:11 pm

No the u15 provincial team members are new comers coming in as grade 10s
One is a centre about 6'7
The other is a combo guard
The ogots are in grade 11 this year
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:15 am

What impact players does Ross Sheppard have this year? I'd also like to hear who St Albert, Sturgeon and Edmonton Christian have this year. Feel free to fill us in Edmonton.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:48 pm

12321: I think you are pretty close on all of your assessments. The only issue with your predictions is that the top 3 teams in your 3A selections are all from the same zone. Only 2 per zone are allowed to attend provincials. The only other thing I can see is that LCI folds to the pressure and O'Leary, due to their experience at provincials, is in the final once again.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:49 pm

St Albert has the best player Andrew Salcedo return in grade 12 this year. They only had 4 seniors on last years team. Carter and Len are in grade 12 and saw lots of time last year too. They will have speed and scoring. Sturgeon lose that one guard but I think has the 6'7" centre still this year. I don't think Edmonton Christian will be as good as last year.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:42 pm

LCI played HA way closer than O'Leary last year and did end up in 5th so experience isn't that much different. And that's only a result of seeding due to injuries throughout the season that dropped them to 8th where they had to play HA in the quarter finals rather than the finals. O'Leary sounds better than what I thought with the addition of the 6'10" guy but I still say LCI has the best shot at knocking off HA. I'll be very surprised to see O'Leary finish ahead of LCI when all is done. I also just heard that depth and guard scoring might be a big issue for HA this year. The door may not be as shut as what some people would have us believe. I say be ready for an LCI championship run this year. LCI could very well win football Tier 1 and 4A basketball in the same year which hasn't been done since Raymond did it in 2010-11.

I would love to see WC and WR Myers at the top of 3A every year but that south central zone seems to have the top 3A teams in the province year after year. Just looking at the ASAA archives, they've had both their provincial tournament teams (zone winner and wildcard) finish top 4 the last 4 years in a row. Chestermere won last year. Bronze the year before. 4th the year before that. Bronze the year before that. Cochrane won 4 years ago, came in second a couple times in a row after that and lost to HTA for the wildcard last year and then HTA came in 4th. With WC back in 4A and WR Myers looking like they are in a bit of a rebuilding mode and Edmonton sounding like there isn't a dominant team, I don't doubt they'll be 1,2,3 all year long. Canmore and George McDougall were strong last year too. Since only 2 can go to provincials that zone tournament must be as good as provincials year after year which is in sharp contrast to the south 3A tournament playoff which is terrible and was only worth a single game. Does anyone know how the south central zone JVs finished off last year?
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:47 am

Just because there may not be a dominant team does not make Edmonton weaker. Better competition = better teams.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:58 pm

@ For Three - Parity certainly makes the league games competitive.

I'm not sure JV results are a great predictor of the next year at the senior level but they are a very good indicator for 2 years later. Those results are hard to dig up though. Here is 2 years ago south Jr boys and then the results this past year in the south along with the other zones I could find.

2012-13 South Jr Boys
1. LCI
2. CCHS
3/4 Cardston/Med Hat

2013-14 South Jr Boys
1. CCHS
2. WC
3/4 LCI/Med Hat

2013-14 Calgary Jr Boys
1. McNally
2. SWC
3/4 ND/BOB

2013-14 Edmonton Jr Boys
1. STFX
2. JP
3/4 BF/HA

2013-14 SC Jr Boys
1. Cochrane
2. Bert Church
3/4 Foothills/Highwood
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 12:15 pm

The point has been made already, but LCI has to be the clear number 1 team in the south. Their current grade 12 players were undefeated as a jv team and this was playing without Westrop as he played varsity as a grade 10. Add to this a couple of decent players off last years jv team and they should be quite good. Height, toughness, good guard play, speed. Expectations will be high. Can someone from med hat chime in as to what they lost and still have? Magrath will be ok but I don't think will make too much noise. Churchill had a solid jv team last year but will take some time for them to adjust to varsity ball. Cardston was actually second to Lci in jv play in 12-13 but that was on the strength of grade 11 players who have since graduated. Cardston will have a small senior group this year and many grade 11s. They have some good athletes, I think they'll be 2-3 in the south. After Lci I think it'll be fairly competitive across the board but I won't be shocked if the top 3 are once again lci med hat and cardston. Not sure about cch they have a few nice players but tough to tell after such a down year last year but their jv team was obviously strong so we will see if that translates into wins at the varsity level. Raymond will be in the bottom half id suspect. Chinook will have a tough time winning much their jv team has been weak for a couple years now.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:05 pm

If I remember correctly, Westrop started off floating in grade 10 but it was obvious he would be a huge contributor at the varsity level full time and after a month or so stayed up. Not only was LCI #1 in JVs 2 years ago, they were dominate going undefeated in regular season and playoffs. They should do that again with their seniors this year. I could be wrong but they may have gone undefeated in tournament play too. Can anyone confirm that?

WC will be okay this year and I expect Kyle will do okay but I do think there will be a learning curve in adjusting to varsity. Watch for them at the senior level in 2015-16.

Med Hat loses a ton of talent and won't be nearly as strong this next year but they do have a few good players returning from last year's team. They also had a very good JV team and will have excellent size which could very well be the biggest advantage they'll have. They should be second to LCI but I could also see them with a bit of self destruct.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:52 pm

Yes I'm quite sure that lci jv team was undefeated in tournaments as well. Not sure what they went to but this seems to sound right. They will be a force for sure. They will have a new varsity coach as well though. Will this be a factor at all? Also, I heard rumors that they picked up that taller curly haired kid from raymond. I don't think he'll be a main contributor by any means but gives them some secondary height to work in too.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 3:12 pm

its hard to use Junior Team and their success and/or lack thereof to determine how the sr varsity team will be or where they will be at.

For example - this past year in Edmonton I beleive STFX won Juniors
however - Harry Ainlay would have likely won cities if their grade 10s were playing juniors

i think it is part of the equation for sure but i would rank determing factors in this order

1. Amount of QUALITY grade 10 players playing SENIOR VARSITY
2. Amount of grade 10 and 11 players on VARSITY
3. Quality of Junior Varsity team

I dont think Harry Ainlay has won juniors in a long long time - yet they are always in the mix for Edmonton

Cardston won provincials year before and I think LCI won the south

it can mean sometime - but most of the time - if a Junior team is so so so good - then there is something going wrong at senior varsity if they cant make that team as a grade 10er

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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 3:58 pm

Ya I agree it's not always reliable to look at jv champs and predict future success. What I look for is whether or not a great jv year was based on a solid grade 10 core. In the case of Lci 2 years ago they were strong at the grade 10 level. Cch last year were weak at grade 10 with the exception of that bigger post. Their main jv scorer was like the 6th man on the varsity squad. In any case a jv team can be good or weaker for many reasons and those things flush out by the time they reach varsity. In many cases it seems that schools that are consistently at the top of their league in varsity have jv teams that maybe aren't quite as good and vice versa.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:54 pm

Not always reliable but still a good indicator. HA still finished 3/4 in Jr this year so I'd guess they're strong and that program will remain strong for a couple more years at least. Include the grade 10s playing varsity last year and it will be that much better. LCI had a dominant team 2 years ago and that group, plus the grade 10s that played up that year, will be dominant this year.

And vice versa doesn't make sense. If you have a really strong JV team and a really weak varsity team, something is not right in your program. JV should be developmental as a support for the varsity level. If it isn't, players and/or coaches have other agendas. If everyone isn't on board and trying to build a solid program throughout, those teams will fail.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:56 pm

12321 you are right...poor word choice, all I meant to say was that one group is not necessarily an indicator of the other. As far as having a strong jv team and a weak varsity team I pose a question. If you do happen to have a year with weak grade 12s and 11s but have a strong grade 10 group, would you keep that group together, or take a grade 10 or 2 up to senior to fill some gaps, not necessarily because they are ready for senior competition but just because they are better than many juniors nd seniors. For example, chinook took Justin Olsen up to senior in grade ten (maybe he was good enough I don't really know) when they had a weak group and they broke up a pretty good core of grade 10 players. They ended up with 2 mediocre teams rather than a stronger jv team that could have grown up together. Not being critical of chinook I think their senior coach is great I just wonder about this scenario sometimes and if teams sacrifice too much moving kids along too quickly.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:16 pm

Lots of rumours flying around in Edmonton. Anyone have information on all the transfers?
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:23 pm

Clearly there are some challenges with the "to play up or not play up" decision. Justin was probably their best player as a grade 10 because they were so weak. Obviously the JV team would have been even weaker competition in both games and practices so it only made sense that he played up. It also gave the other JV players a chance to fill his role which theoretically should make that entire grade better in the long run. I just don't think that core you're talking about was really good enough to do any significant damage in the league last year. But they weren't last so that's something.

I'm hearing rumors about Edmonton players changing schools. I'd like to hear it from someone in Edmonton with a better knowledge of what's happening.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:39 pm

Fair enough agreed that would be a challenge for coaches.
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PostSubject: Season Opening Tournaments   Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:48 pm

Draw is out for the Calgary Basketball Classic. Teams announced for the Mike Dea in Edmonton. Rankings for Calgary seem to be fairly accurate. We will have a pretty clear picture of the top teams by early December. When is the first tournament in Southern Alberta?
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:44 pm

Not much happening on this site. South tournaments this year are Cardston December 12-13; Magrath the following weekend; Sugar bowl starts boxing day; Green and Gold January 8-10; WC hosts end of January.

Calgary Classic Rankings
1. Bishop McNally
2. Bishop O'Byrne
3. Sir Winston Churchill
4. Fr. Lacombe
5. St. Mary's
6. St. Francis
7. Western Canada
8. Bishop Grandin
9. Crescent Heights
10. Notre Dame
11. Ernest Manning
12. Centennial
13. Bowness
14. Dr. E.P.Scarlett
15. Robert Thirsk
16. William Aberhart

Ernest Manning at 11 and St Francis at 6 are the surprises. They probably should be reversed.

District 4 draw is even more puzzling.

First Round @ Fr. Lacombe
Fr. Lacombe vs Centennial
Dr. E.P Scarlett vs Crescent Heights (Medicine Hat)

J. Percy Page (Edmonton) vs Bishop O’Byrne
Ernest Manning vs Golden Composite (BC)

First Round @ Forest Lawn
Crescent Heights (Calgary) vs Bishop McNally
Sir Winston Churchill vs Foothills Composite (Okotoks)

Forest Lawn vs Sturgeon Composite
Paul Kane (Edmonton) vs Medicine Hat

McNally and Churchill would play each other in the second round which doesn't make much sense but I think its like this every year. Weed the strong teams out in the second round and attempt to open the door for the host teams to play in the semi finals.

Predictions:
Fr. Lacombe vs Dr. E.P Scarlett
Bishop O’Byrne vs Ernest Manning
Bishop McNally vs SWC
Forest Lawn vs PK

Semi finals:
Fr. Lacombe vs Bishop O’Byrne
Bishop McNally vs PK

Finals:
Bishop McNally over Bishop O’Byrne
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:58 pm

Just once it would be nice if the tournament organizer had the two "best" teams playing in a final. For those of us who like to come in on the weekend to catch the final, it is frustrating to see one team being blown out because it was on the easy side of the draw.
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PostSubject: Re: 2014-2015 3A/4A Boys Season   Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:26 am

Some interesting results at the two major 4A boys tournaments this weekend and a definite shakeup in some of the rankings. Up at the Mike Dea in Edmonton we have Ross Shep pounding O'Leary in the final be 20. That has Ross Shep moving up at least to #2 in Edmonton and they should get serious consideration for #1. They looked good in this tournament.

At the District Four tournament they had the top four ranked teams in Calgary playing and we saw #1 rank McNally lose to Churchill, #2 rank BOB lose to Lacombe and then Churchill torch Lacombe by 20.

Other comments from these two tournaments were that St. Francis Calgary has some talent as they competed well at the Mike Dea. Medicine Hat looked weak at the District Four. Ernest Manning looked solid and could make some noise. Certainly stronger than the #11 ranking they received in Calgary.

Provincial adjustments:
#1 Harry Ainlay
#2 Churchill
#3 Ross Shep
#4 LCI
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