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 3A Boys Season Preview

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svcoach90



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Join date : 2011-12-14

PostSubject: 3A Boys Season Preview   Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:47 pm

As its getting closer and closer to the start of game action for the sport we love i was just curious about some opinions and thoughts of the upcoming season. All areas of the prov and some top players that should make and impact. Thoughts?
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For Three



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:35 am

Pretty much the same with small adjustments. For provincials next March. Some guesses in the weak zones. Impact players in the north to watch are Andrew Salcedo for St Albert and Cole Knudsen for Barrhead.

Edmonton Zone (wildcard)
1. Leduc
2. St Albert
3. Sturgeon

Central Zone
1. Ponoka
2. HJ Cody
3. Wetaskiwin

Calgary Zone
1. Queen Elizabeth
2. Foundations for the Future
3. St Martin de Porres

Northwest Zone
1. St Joseph
2. Peace Wapiti
3. Beaverlodge

North Central Zone
1. Barrhead
2. Hilltop
3. Morinville

North East Zone (Host)
1. Fort McMurray
2. Holy Trinity
3. Westwood

South Central (wildcard)
1. Chestermere
2. Holy Trinity
3. Cochrane

South (wildcard)
1. WR Myers
2. McCoy
3. Crescent Heights
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:56 am

That list is everything that is wrong with 3A basketball. How do you possibly differentiate between teams that are in the middle of not very good and really not very good?
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For Three



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:46 am

It includes all areas of the province and I think the best teams are on there. Post your own list if you disagree. I get that your team isn't 3A this year but that doesn't mean 3A is suddenly not very good as you suggest.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:04 pm

I don't necessarily disagree with your picks and there are some really strong 3A teams. I know very little about some of the teams you've listed but I can say with a fairly high degree of certainty that they are not going to be good. Provincials last year had 4 really good teams, 4 or 5 reasonably good teams and 3 or 4 teams that got there just because they won a weak zone. Traditionally there is a lot of disparity in 3A across the province and this year is no different. The top 3-5 3A teams will compete with top 10-20 4A. The rest of the top 10 3A teams should be reasonably good. When you get down below that the quality of 3A will drop off considerably. I do expect that the South Central and Edmonton zones will be the strongest with South Central at 1-3, South at 4 and Edmonton going 5-8. I'll put a top 10 3A list on here when I start seeing some scores.
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hoopfan123



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:58 pm

A lot of results still to come in but early predictions first ranking;

1. Chestermere
2. Leduc
3. Sturgeon
4. Holy Trinity-Okotoks
5. Cochrane
6. Wetaskewin
7. West Central
8. St. Albert
9. Edmonton Christian
10. WR Myers

HR - St. Peter the Apostle, Olds, George MacDougall, McCoy, Peace Wapiti

Is Winston Churchill competing 3A or 4A? They will be top 10 if 3A. Fort McMurray should have a strong team this year but cannot find any results?
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westwind Bball



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:20 pm

Winston is 4A
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hoopfan123



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:27 am

I heard Leduc is also competing 4A can anyone confirm?
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:03 am

WC is for sure 4A. That was decided long ago. They would be perennial 3A contenders but instead will be be fighting as a long shot for a 4A provincial berth from the south. They're not a bad team but have some work to do. I get the reasoning but I don't think politics should trump everything else.

Leduc is 3A. They were just over 800 students last year and played 4A. They are just under 800 students this year and have already declared 3A. Leduc and St Peter the Apostle have also moved up to Edmonton Div 1 this year to join Edmonton Christian as 3A teams in that league. Those 3 teams should be the top teams out of Edmonton followed by Sturgeon and St Albert which I think will be the strongest zone for 3A ball followed by the south central.

Chestermere and Cochrane's scores are what I expected before this season started. They were in my top 3 before any games were played and while neither have played a lot of games so far their wins are by the scores that a top team would put up. Leduc certainly joins them in the top tier. You could make an argument for Leduc being ranked 1 based on a tough schedule including a 10 win over WC. TBH I would expect Chestermere and Cochrane to record a bigger win than that over WC this year so I have them at 3. The second tier would include Sturgeon, Edmonton Christian, HTA and SPA. St Peter has only had a big loss to HA but I think they belong here. Sturgeon had a 2 pt game with a lower Div 2 Bowness team and lost to SWC by 41. Not top tier scores. HTA won the Calgary Classic B pool but their last 2 games were very close wins over 2A Heritage Christian and a weak Forest Lawn team that lost to Sturgeon by 16. Also not scores you'd expect from a top tier 3A team so I've put them in the 2nd level despite what I think they're capable of based on last year's provincials performance and how many key players they brought back this year. Then you have Wetaskiwin, Olds and WR Myers who appear equal in their wins over the same opponents but lost badly to Chestermere (32pts) Cochrane (43pts) and Leduc (33pts) respectively. I would put St Albert in this grouping with their only game being a 13 pt loss to Sturgeon. I expected more from WR Myers this year. We'll see if they can elevate their play and move up.

After that we have McCoy and George McDougall who had a 1 pt game against each other. Add Springbank to this group with a close win over George McDougall recorded on their league web site but not on the ASAA site. I'm not sure it means a lot in this case but missing scores on exnet always bother me. West Central makes a case with a solid win over what should be a weak Hunting Hills squad. Peace Wapiti, Louis St. Laurent, Fort McMurray and Barrhead have nothing to really compare to and have not been top teams the last few years. I'm curious to see if Cole Knudson can lead Barrhead into a top 10 ranking. We'll get more scores over the week and next weekend which should give us a more accurate prediction before the first rankings come out. Right now I've got a top 15.

1. Chestermere
2. Cochrane
3. Leduc
4. Sturgeon
5. Edmonton Christian
6. Holy Trinity OK
7. St. Peter the Apostle
8. Wetaskiwin Composite
9. Olds
10. WR Myers High
11. St Albert
12. Springbank
13, George McDougall High
14. Monsignor McCoy High
15. West Central
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For Three



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:27 pm

St Albert is that far down based on a single close loss to what should be the #2 team? Leduc and Sturgeon have had harder schedules and way more games than Chestermere and Cochrane.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:05 pm

This is not an RPI although if it was it I think it would be the same. Part of this is wins/losses, part is point difference, part is comparisons with other teams' opponents, part is schedule, part is seeing the games, part of it is knowing what a top 3A looks like and part is talking with other team's coaches who know what they're like. Since its so early in the season part of it is seeing the teams in the past and knowing who they have back or bringing up, part is a team's program/coaching and part is knowing who the top players are and how they help their teams win games. 3A is not like 4A where the 10th team can lose by 3 to the 1st team and both teams' rankings stay the same. There is far more disparity so point difference has to be used in order to make comparisons. Maybe it changes this next week and Chestermere/Cochrane lose games or have close games with weak teams that put their status into question. Maybe SPA beats Leduc tonight or ECS upsets HA or SPA upsets Oleary or Leduc beats PK on Wednesday. Top 3A teams beat top 10 4A teams every year so it could happen. If it does, things will change. If it doesn't that top should stay the same. As far as St Albert goes it would be nice to have another comparison game but for right now they're clearly a step back from Sturgeon who is a step back of Chestermere, Cochrane and Leduc.
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ramfan



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:18 pm

Churchill perennial contenders in 3A? They just spent 12-15 years at the 3A level and only went to provincials maybe 3 times. They had troubles coming out the the South zone for the last decade+, Crescent Heights, McCoy, Eagle Butte, and even Kate Andrews always beat them. That being said they've had strong players the past 2 seasons and they would be competitive on the 3A provincial level this year. Too bad politics in the south have forced them 4A as they don't stand a chance to be top 3 or 4 in the south zone.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:23 pm

Would be, not have been although its been 3 years in a row of 3A provincial calibre teams. The best team of those 3 played 4A when WRM bolted.
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HTAbball



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:22 pm

HTA was leading by 27 after the 3rd quarter vs. Forest Lawn. Also Dylan Wheeler was not playing.
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svcoach90



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:58 pm

I heard chestermere is and has been without two starters most of year. One for sure hasnt played a single game.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:36 pm

Injuries are part of the game. There is no free pass. I'm sure every team could get on here and tell us about players who are injured. It can be noted but doesn't change the result.

Up by 27 after 3 and they held on to win by 5. I'm not sure if you're trying to make them sound better than they are or worse.
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HTAbball



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:03 am

Fair enough. The point I was trying to make though is that it is difficult to judge teams based on results early in the season. When the 3a teams start to play each other frequently there will be a better gauge of who the top teams are.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:56 am

3A teams are playing each other on a regular basis. The issue in 3A is the disparity in competition level. You could put together a league of three 3A teams from Edmonton and three 3A teams from South Central and we'd get some entertaining competitive games. Someone throws a list up of every zone's top teams and there are teams on that list that won't get within 100 points of those 6 teams. Even on a top 10 list, the top teams are beating other teams on that same list by 50-60 points. That's the problem with 3A, that's the problem with ranking 3A, and that's the problem with the competition level at provincials.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:20 am

http://www.asaa.ca/new/documents/SchoolClassSizeDocument.pdf
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For Three



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:56 pm

12321 That is way too much for rankers to consider. They can't spend their time on half that stuff. And point difference is not used in rankings as much as you say otherwise good teams would press bad teams and make the point difference as much as possible. It's about wins. I don't think they care about what players are on what team, coaching, who's coming up or lot of what you say. They might consider how good the competition is and maybe take injuries into account a little bit but its really about wins and losses. If you win you get ranked. If you don't you won't.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:35 pm

I agree. Without question, wins are the most important. After that you have to consider everything else. Maybe not as much as wins but it all has to be considered in order to put a rank on teams that haven't played each other. Scores have to be in by tomorrow so we'll see what has changed in the past week. We'll also see who doesn't post their scores, wins or losses, and is, or at least should be, omitted by omission.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:12 pm

Its been an interesting week of scores. Still missing scores but since today is the deadline I thought I'd give the easier 3A ranking a shot first. The one thing for certain is that Chestermere is undefeated and #1 with a mix of easy games and tough games. Leduc joins them on the top tier with a tough schedule and only a couple losses. On the second tier I have two teams that I picked early to be top tier - Cochrane and HTA. They have both been winning but pt diff has been sporadic against teams they should beat by more. Cochrane notes key injuries which could be a reason. HTA mentioned Dylan Wheeler was injured for a couple of their close wins to weaker teams on this forum. I had Sturgeon ahead of HTA but I think they should be behind after loss to SGC who is seen as a weaker team in ED Div2. New teams on the radar are Strathcona Christian Academy and St. Joseph (Edmonton). They don't have a ton of scores or scores to compare with and may be too high on the list but they have to be ahead of EC who lost to SCA but played depleted which brings into question how high SCA goes. EC and SPA have had tough schedules and sport losing records but for sure are in the mix although its hard to rank SPA higher than HM with a 1-7 record.

1. Chestermere (9-0)
2. Leduc (11-3) Tough schedule so far with only losses to PK who they also beat, RS and St Francis Calgary.
3. Cochrane (6-1) Winning but inconsistent with pt diff. Lots of comparison games except loss to BC team.
4. Holy Trinity OK (6-2) Winning but inconsistent with pt diff. Losses to St Francis and Father Lacombe.
5. St. Joseph (Edmonton) (5-2) Key comparison games - close loss to SGC and bad loss to Grandin.
6. Sturgeon (7-4) Key comparison game - close loss to SGC and one yet unrecorded. Good win over St Albert. A very close win over Bowness.
7. Strathcona Christian Academy (4-0) Very close win over a depleted ECS team. Hard to tell if they belong higher on the list.
8. Edmonton Christian (5-7) Tough schedule so far. Key comparison game - close loss to SCA.
9. Wetaskiwin (6-4) Lots of comparison games. Big losses to Leduc, Chestermere. Close wins over WR Myers, GMac.
10. WR Myers High (6-2) Key comparison game - close loss to Wetaskiwin

HM St Peter the Apostle (1-7) Tough schedule.
HM St Albert (2-2) Clearly missing scores. Key losses recorded to Sturgeon and EC.
HM Olds (4-1) Winning but a bad loss to Cochrane. Key comparison game -  win over Gmac with a similar score to Wetaskiwin/Gmac game.
HM Ponoka (2-5) Missing scores. Hard to read.
HM George McDougall (3-5) Clearly missing scores - wins and losses

I think there are a few more teams that could be on the HM list. Some tough calls.


Last edited by 12321 on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:28 am; edited 5 times in total
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:51 pm

Somes teams are posting scores today which is a day late. I'll amend the list if anything stands out. Oddly enough the 3 rankers are tardy with their own game scores.

Wetaskiwin was at the Camrose Classic Tournament but only has 1 loss to Holy Trinity Edmonton recorded by Holy Trinity Edmonton for the weekend. St Albert was at the SCA tournament but is also missing one score from the weekend. HTA just put their scores up and noted that everyone played. I watched a few games of that tournament including the FL/WA game that will shake up the 4A ranks. Everyone played if you're counting seconds. Their bench isn't deep and the last 4-5 guys don't see much time at all. That might be their achilles heel this year. They have some really nice players but they have to stay healthy and those key players have to stay in the game.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:39 am

I think all the important scores are in. Some new ones added. I swapped St Joseph ED and Sturgeon for 5-6. The HM list is sketchy. Interested to find out how the rankers will see it.
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svcoach90



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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:45 pm

First rankings
1 Leduc Composite Edmonton
2 Chestermere High South Central
3 Holy Trinity Academy, Okotoks South Central
4 Strathcona Christian Academy Edmonton
5 Edmonton Christian Edmonton
6 Cochrane High South Central
7 Sturgeon Composite Edmonton
8 St. Joseph Edmonton
9 Wetaskiwin Composite Central
10 WR Myers, Taber South
Honorable Mentions (alphabetical order)

Barrhead Composite North Central

Eastglen High Edmonton

Olds High South Central

Peace Wapiti Academy, Grande Prairie North West

St. Albert Catholic



first set of rankings. Thoughts?

Need to see some more games between the top 5-6 teams to really distinguish the top teams and how they rank.
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PostSubject: Re: 3A Boys Season Preview   Today at 3:05 pm

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