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 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions

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Aball



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:04 pm

Ainlay wins Sugar Bowl fairly easily. Have to be ranked #1 in Alberta. Like what I'm seeing from Magrath, Cardston and LCI. Definitely the strength of the South. Was not all that impressed with Ross Shep.
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2guard24



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:51 am

Ainley lost to BOB in the REB invitational and BOB has been challenged by other Calgary teams. From what I've seen and heard, two of the three major zones(Edmonton, Calgary, and South) should be very competitive (Edmonton not so much) this year. Look forward to seeing who will be the dark horse - watch out for Scona, O'Leary, Churchill (Calgary), Western or even Raymond who always gets much better as the season roles on. Should make for as an interesting March Madness as we've seen.
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:03 pm

Any predictions for the boys rankings?
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Aball



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:48 pm

I think I have seen enough games and results to make a guess:

1. OByrne-beat Ainlay and undefeated in league
2. Ainlay-still feel they are best team in Alberta but a loss is a loss
3. Lacombe- like their athleticism. Undefeated in league
4. Magrath- its a 3 team race in the South and this may flip flop
5. Churchill- undefeated in league but did lose to Lacombe
6. LCI/Cardston-very competitive South
7. LCI/ Cardston- could go either way
8. Ross Shep- did not do well at Sugar Bowl but #2 in Edmonton
9. McNally- losses to Lacombe and Churchill
10.Oleary/Xavier/Mary's
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:57 am

I'll give it a shot as well.  I went a little Calgary heavy however that is the best zone IMO this year.

1. BOB
2. Ainlay (I think they are the best team at this point however)
3. Fr. Lacombe
4. Cardston (Beat Magrath twice and LCI once)
5. Churchill (CGY)
6. Magrath (Beat LCI twice in very close games)
7. LCI
8. Shep
9. O’Leary
10. St. Mary’s (Strange team, very inconsistent results)

HM – Raymond (Very young but a few solid results)
HM – JP
HM – McNally
HM – Aberhart (Undefeated in league with wins over St.Mary's and Western)
HM – Western
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:20 pm

Pasting this here, so there's continuity:

4A Boys Ranking #1

1 BOB
2 HA
3 Cardston
4 FL
5 SWC
6 Magrath
7 LCI
8 shep
9 Bishop McNally
10 Oleary
HM JP, STFX, Foothills, ST Mary, Raymond
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westwind Bball



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PostSubject: second rankings    Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:12 pm

1 Bishop OByrne, Calgary Calgary
2 Harry Ainlay High School, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
3 Cardston High, Cardston South
4 Father Lacombe, Calgary Calgary
5 Bishop McNally, Calgary Calgary
6 St. Mary (Calgary), Calgary Calgary
7 Magrath School, Magrath South
8 Sir Winston Churchill, Calgary Calgary
9 Lethbridge Collegiate Institute, Lethbridge South
10 Ross Sheppard, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Honorable Mentions
Archbishop OLeary, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
William Aberhart, Calgary Calgary
Western Canada, Calgary Calgary
St. Francis Xavier (Edmonton), Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Jasper Place, Edmonton
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:45 pm

westwind Bball wrote:
1 Bishop OByrne, Calgary Calgary
2 Harry Ainlay High School, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
3 Cardston High, Cardston South
4 Father Lacombe, Calgary Calgary
5 Bishop McNally, Calgary Calgary
6 St. Mary (Calgary), Calgary Calgary
7 Magrath School, Magrath South
8 Sir Winston Churchill, Calgary Calgary
9 Lethbridge Collegiate Institute, Lethbridge South
10 Ross Sheppard, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Honorable Mentions
Archbishop OLeary, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
William Aberhart, Calgary Calgary
Western Canada, Calgary Calgary
St. Francis Xavier (Edmonton), Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Jasper Place, Edmonton

7 Calgary teams? I know Edmonton is a little top-heavy, and Calgary is really competitive, but I'm a little surprised. Goes to show how strong Calgary is this year - Crescent Heights could actually squeak in as well - they are super fun to watch. The North side of Div 1 in Calgary is way stronger than the South. The South only has BoB, Mary's & maybe Western, while the North has Churchill, Lacombe, McNally, & even Abe, Crescent & Francis are competitive. Calgary boys ball is in great shape right now.
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Ball456



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:35 am

I think you may even see LCI drop out of the top ten this next ranking as well making room for possibly one more Calgary team. LCI lost to western at the Green and Gold tourney last weekend. A loss against an HM team in your home tourney on your home court should be enough to drop you out when you're already fading towards the bottom. Cardston and Magrath are really the only south teams that should be ranked at this point. LCI needs to come up with some big wins if they hope for the south to get a wild card birth. As it stands now, it should probably be only the host plus two. Give Calgary an extra birth.
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westwind Bball



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PostSubject: LCI   Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:59 pm

the issue with LCI is that they lost to western but beat sir winston churchill in that same tournament who is ranked 8
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No one



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:02 pm

Ball456 wrote:
I think you may even see LCI drop out of the top ten this next ranking as well making room for possibly one more Calgary team. LCI lost to western at the Green and Gold tourney last weekend. A loss against an HM team in your home tourney on your home court should be enough to drop you out when you're already fading towards the bottom. Cardston and Magrath are really the only south teams that should be ranked at this point. LCI needs to come up with some big wins if they hope for the south to get a wild card birth. As it stands now, it should probably be only the host plus two. Give Calgary an extra birth.

Has Calgary ever received 5 berths? I don't recall this happening since I've been following. From what I've seen, it seems that Calgary has a clear top 5 (SWC, McNally, FL, BOB, Mary's) and even then those teams are still played hard many nights (particularly in the North Division, WA is solid, and other teams are playing the North's Top 3 close). Western can be in the Top 6 but they have bad matchups against larger and more physical teams from what I've seen. For Calgary, I would count on BOB or McNally winning due to their consistency and (in my opinion) good coaching.

Edmonton seems to have just Ainlay (in league it looks like they've beaten everyone by 30+) but I think they are the favourite despite BOB being #1. Ainlay was up most of the BOB game if I recall but lost at the very end and they have consistently beaten ranked teams. Ross Shepard seems to be the second best team in Edmonton but the gap between 1 and 2 seems very large. That said, Edmonton teams are still playing other zones well, it just seems that Ainlay has them mentally (?).

The South has Cardston and Magrath being consistent while LCI can play with the top teams but also can play poorly (from their results). Besides that, I feel it's a down year for the South. Perhaps a team like Raymond or Medicine Hat can turn it around?
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westwind Bball



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PostSubject: 5 births    Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:05 pm

yes it happens from time to time most of the time it happens with the host zone having a strong year but possible other times last year in girls Edmonton got 5 bids despite the south zone hosting
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Ball456



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:48 am

westwind Bball wrote:
the issue with LCI is that they lost to western but beat sir winston churchill in that same tournament who is ranked 8

hmmm ya didn't realize that. Well who knows. LCI certainly has talent and ability to play with good top ten teams. As for now it seems that the south is a two horse race with LCI chasing in third. I don't see Raymond and Med Hat making much noise. Just not quite enough there this year for those two teams. Both always come out and play hard though so stranger things have happened.
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:41 am

3rd Ranking Boys

1 Bishop OByrne, Calgary Calgary
2 Harry Ainlay High School, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
3 Cardston High, Cardston South
4 Father Lacombe, Calgary Calgary
5 Bishop McNally, Calgary Calgary
6 St. Mary (Calgary), Calgary Calgary
7 Magrath School, Magrath South
8 Lethbridge Collegiate Institute, Lethbridge South
9 Ross Sheppard, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
10 Archbishop OLeary, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Honorable Mentions
Sir Winston Churchill, Calgary Calgary
Jasper Place, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Western Canada, Calgary Calgary
St. Francis Xavier (Edmonton), Edmonton Edmonton Metro
William Aberhart, Calgary Calgary
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Aball



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:28 pm

Ainlay wins Edmonton division one championship by 51 points over Ross Shep?? Have to be the favorites going into provincials. I don't care what happened early in the year.
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No one



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:35 pm

Any chance Calgary can maybe get the 5th berth? At least on their point allocation, Calgary has basically double the points of both the South and Edmonton... it will be a shame that one of Mary's or Lacombe may not make it. Despite Ainlay's dominance (#1 Team in AB for me), I don't think that Edmonton deserves 4 berths (Even their second best team, Ross Shepard, just lost by 51 to Ainlay, I doubt any of Calgary's top 5 would lose that handily). The South is a bit more tricky since they have 3 very solid teams but get a host berth for Med Hat from what I understand.
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:01 am

No one- The answer would be almost a certain no. The host is always in provincials no matter what plus the guaranteed zone berths plus the wild cards. Each of Calgary, South and Edmonton is almost always awarded 1 wild card of the 3 available (and most other years a wild card thief is when a small zone has 2 good teams).

IMO Cardston, Magrath and LCI (LCI has 4 wins against the Top 5 teams from Calgary and are clearly the 3rd best team going into zones in the South) all deserve to be in over a 5th Calgary team. You definitely have an argument for Edmonton, especially since Churchill owns a 30 pt win over JP (loss to O'Leary however) however I just don't see the committee taking away Edmonton's 4th bid as the Top 4 teams from Edmonton are all at least HM in the rankings. Certainly would be more fun to watch St.Mary's/Lacombe in provincials rather than JP but it simply won't happen.

Currently the ASAA has each Edmonton, South, and Calgary receiving 1 Wild Card and this will be final as of noon tomorrow.
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No one



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:14 pm

GoKnights wrote:
No one- The answer would be almost a certain no. The host is always in provincials no matter what plus the guaranteed zone berths plus the wild cards. Each of Calgary, South and Edmonton is almost always awarded 1 wild card of the 3 available (and most other years a wild card thief is when a small zone has 2 good teams).

IMO Cardston, Magrath and LCI (LCI has 4 wins against the Top 5 teams from Calgary and are clearly the 3rd best team going into zones in the South) all deserve to be in over a 5th Calgary team. You definitely have an argument for Edmonton, especially since Churchill owns a 30 pt win over JP (loss to O'Leary however) however I just don't see the committee taking away Edmonton's 4th bid as the Top 4 teams from Edmonton are all at least HM in the rankings. Certainly would be more fun to watch St.Mary's/Lacombe in provincials rather than JP but it simply won't happen.

Currently the ASAA has each Edmonton, South, and Calgary receiving 1 Wild Card and this will be final as of noon tomorrow.

Yeah that is fair, it has been confirmed now. I do think that Edmonton shouldn't get 4 berths but regardless, provincials will be great to watch! Realistically, I'd only pick one of BOB, Ainlay, Cardston, Magrath and possibly Lacombe to win it all. So I guess it doesn't change much.
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Mr403



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:24 pm

Mary’s takes it against Lacombe, pretty sad given the talent Lacombe has. Perhaps a coaching change?
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Aball



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:38 pm

Yes, Lacombe tends to not improve during the year and that should be a concern. I had picked them to go deeper this year. Surprising...
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No one



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:58 pm

I don't know if it is the players or the coach but every year they always underachieve despite their talent. I feel it comes from their arrogance and lack of humility, at least this year, they just assume they are the best and do not play with any discipline.

Contrast that with a team like McNally, where they are always locked in and extremely disciplined in the playoffs. Despite their talent (they usually have a lot but I still feel this is a down year), they will always meet expectations or exceed it because of their hunger.

Semi Finals will be great to watch, McNally/SWC will be a dogfight but I see McNally winning it (at least from watching both SWC/McNally tonight). BOB/Mary's, despite Mary's win I see BOB winning it fairly easily, this Mary's team is just mentally "owned" by BOB but maybe they can pull the upset.
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localhoopfan



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:58 am

Yes Lacombe plays an undisciplined game but full marks to Mary's who played tremendously and actually out ran Lacombe last night. Shot very well (36 points in Q1) and pushed the pace and the Lacombe guards we coughing up the ball under pressure all night. Some sensational NBA-calibre dunks by Minyang had the place going nuts but every time Lacombe made a push Marys would answer. Pace reminded me of an early December game in Edmonton to see Ainlay play Lacombe, the pace was incredible and fun to be in the stands for.
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:48 pm

Mr403 wrote:
Mary’s takes it against Lacombe, pretty sad given the talent Lacombe has. Perhaps a coaching change?

That's harsh... Remember - coaches at this level are volunteers, and often staff members. It's not easy to find coaches willing to take on a top program; it's a huge time commitment The head coach at Lacombe has put a tonne of work into building up the program. Besides - Lacombe used to be Div 3. They don't have a huge school and pull from a challenging socio-economic community. Until Genesis starting working with NE boys & Lacombe/McNally got better coaches, they used to underachieve - all the talent and athleticism in the world, but a lack of discipline, team play or systems. The fact that they're so strong now is a testament to the coaches.
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TheBiggerPicture



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:26 pm

I agree wholeheartedly about the NE teams, and that there is no need to disparage the coaching. I have seen major improvements at Father Lacombe over the last 5 years, and expect they will continue to take step forwards.

Just unfortunate this year that FL does not get a second chance with a 5th Calgary berth at provincials. Would be unusual but not unprecedented. Having watched a fair bit this year, I think that FL, SM, BMc, and SWC all could finish 2nd in Edmonton, never mind 3rd or 4th.

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No one



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PostSubject: Re: 2017-2018 4A Boys Predictions   Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:48 pm

oldman wrote:
Mr403 wrote:
Mary’s takes it against Lacombe, pretty sad given the talent Lacombe has. Perhaps a coaching change?

That's harsh...  Remember - coaches at this level are volunteers, and often staff members.  It's not easy to find coaches willing to take on a top program; it's a huge time commitment  The head coach at Lacombe has put a tonne of work into building up the program.  Besides - Lacombe used to be Div 3.  They don't have a huge school and pull from a challenging socio-economic community.  Until Genesis starting working with NE boys & Lacombe/McNally got better coaches, they used to underachieve - all the talent and athleticism in the world, but a lack of discipline, team play or systems.  The fact that they're so strong now is a testament to the coaches.

Yeah, great insight, these programs are perennial contenders despite the challenges that they face. It is also important to note that Mary's is not just a random team, they are very solid and if they can beat BOB, they have a very good chance against SWC/McNally. It is unfortunate but one of the top 5 had to have their season end due to the allocation of the berths.
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