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 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions

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Who is your favourite for 4A girls?
JP
17%
 17% [ 1 ]
Kane
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
SACHS
50%
 50% [ 3 ]
LCI
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Magrath
17%
 17% [ 1 ]
Cardston
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Centennial
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Carroll
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Western
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Other
16%
 16% [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 6
 

AuthorMessage
oldman



Posts : 64
Join date : 2017-03-09

PostSubject: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:06 pm

Any thoughts?

Lots of stuff said about the South, but I haven't heard much from Edmonton.  Will it be JP, SACHS, Kane again?

In Calgary, I still hearing things, but based on last year...

Centennial will be strong again. So will Carroll, but the gap between them and Centennial is bigger this year.  Centennial are the favourites again.

Unless they have new girls, Abe should slide a bit, but still be strong.

Western has a young team, but they'll be in the mix again.

Francis & Mary's are darkhorses. Both had young teams last year.

No idea about Grandin (always play tough) or Thirsk.  Bowness has improved quickly as a program, so are an outside threat.

No Churchill, Scarlett, Manning or BoB in Div 1 anymore.  The league is tighter & much more competitive (so better).

I'll have a better idea after opening tournaments.
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
Join date : 2014-08-21

PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:35 am

Tournaments begin this weekend, so I am giving a preview and my preseason power rankings.

Edmonton is top heavy with two powerhouse teams (SACHS and JP).  SACHS likely comes out on top because they have size, depth, and several Basketball Canada ID kids.  JP has its usual big group of Team Alberta grade 10s plus a Team Alberta grade 11 transfer, but the timing of JP’s best player’s (Fedick) return from injury is not known.  PK has a couple of strong seniors and could give either of the top two a scare in a single game, but is unlikely to place in the top two over the season.  The fourth placed Edmonton team will be a marginal HM and the rest of the top division will be weak.  JP and SACHS will struggle to keep the margin of the beat downs small enough not to make people angry.

Calgary has a more competitive league because the talent is more widely distributed - see the thread about boundaries.  BC has the best talent with two of the top players in Calgary, but has a thin bench.  WC is twelve deep, but lacks the top end talent BC has.  Centennial will be close with WC and BC and some might rate them higher.  In the next tier, St. Francis and St. Mary’s are top 10 candidates but I give the edge to SF on depth and guard play.  Abe will be competitive and should be HM.  Most of the other teams in the bottom half of division 1 will be more competitive than usual.

Magrath returns most of its team that was highly ranked last year and should be the best in the south.  Raymond should be improved with good grade 10s.   LCI lost good players, but return Heggie and can only be healthier than last year.  Myers is competitive with the top teams, but will play 3A.  Cardston or Medicine Hat will be fifth (fourth of the 4A teams) in the league and possibly HM.  It is hard to believe and bad for the league that Chinook -  great facility and largest enrolment in Lethbridge - won’t field a senior girls team after being a 4A Provincial finalist in 2014.

Preseason Power Ranking

1. SACHS
2. Bishop Carroll
3. JP
4. Western Canada
5. Centennial
6. Magrath
7. Paul Kane
8. LCI
9. St. Francis
10. Raymond
HM: Cardston, St. Mary’s, Aberhart, Hunting Hills, Scona
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hoopsab



Posts : 24
Join date : 2016-02-02

PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:09 pm

SACHS and JP will be top 2 girls teams out of Edmonton this year. I think 3-5 are up for grabs. I do not think Paul Kane is a lock as the 3rd best team. When healthy, I think Scona has the talent to beat them this year. as they took their lumps last year with a tonne of young guards who will be more seasoned this year. Leduc + Sal might also be in the mix.

In Calgary, the 3 best teams are Cent. , Bishop , Western, I would say in that order.

2 years ago, Magrath loaded up on grade 10s, so they should be provincially ranked in the top 10 all year and I think they are the only team from the south who belong in the same category as SACHS, JP, Cent, Bishop, Western.

SACHS would be my pre-season pick for the most talented team in the province, and the scary thing is their best players are grade 11s.

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trifecta3



Posts : 35
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:13 pm

https://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/high-expectations-for-skyhawks-20181123
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
Join date : 2014-08-21

PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:39 pm

Week Two Power Rankings

Rank (Last Week)

1. (3) JP.  Lost to Semiahmoo in D4 final.  Defeated Bishop Carroll in D4 semi without Yvonne Ejim. No tournament next weekend.
2. (2) Bishop Carroll.  Lost to JP in a competitive game in D4 semi and beat SACHS by 20 or so in D4 third place game.  Probably would beat JP with Ejim, but rankings honour the result.  Vs Aberhart on Tuesday.  Vs Centennial Thursday.
3. (1) SACHS.  Lost to Semiahmoo (#3 in BC in Tsumura preseason rankings) in D4 semi.  Lost to Bishop Carroll in D4 third place game.  Grade 10s look to be fitting in well already.  Will be interested to see them against JP - might bet on SACHS.  BC tournament next weekend.
4. (4) Western.  Lost to Semiahmoo and defeated Mt. Baker.  Looked solid as expected.  Vs St Francis on Monday.  Vs Thirsk on Thursday.  SAIT Silver Belle next weekend.
5. (5) Centennial.  Vs Bowness Tuesday.  Vs Bishop Carroll Thursday.
6. (6) Magrath.  No league games this week.  At Ross Shep tournament next weekend.
7. ( 8 )LCI.  Vs Catholic Central Tuesday.  No tournament this weekend.
8. (10) Raymond. Vs Myers (3A) Thursday
9. (NR) Medicine Hat.  Def St. Joseph’s (Saskatchewan) in semi and lost in final of Mike Dea Classic to Leboldus (Saskatchewan).  Vs Catholic Central on Wednesday.  Host Green & White tournament next weekend.
10. (HM) St. Mary’s.  Good performance in loss to JP followed by scrappy win over St. Francis.  Vs Bishop Grandin Tuesday.

HM (7) Paul Kane.  Defeated Scona and lost to Leboldus (Saskatchewan) in semi and St. Joseph’s (Saskatchewan) in third place game at Mike Dea Classic.
HM (HM) Aberhart.  Win in exhibition over Bowness.  Vs Bishop Carroll on Tuesday.  SAIT Silver Belle next weekend.
HM (HM) Cardston.  Vs Churchill on Wednesday.  SAIT Silver Belle next weekend.
HM (HM) Scona.  Lost to Paul Kane by 13 in Mike Dea Classic quarters.  Narrow win over Leduc in consolation semi.
HM (HM) Hunting Hills.

Dropping out: (9) St. Francis - likely to be back as more games are played.

Metro Athletics - please post the regular season schedule.  Same goes for tournaments - Ross Shep Totem and Med Hat Green & White post draws please.
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oldman



Posts : 64
Join date : 2017-03-09

PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:44 pm

trifecta3 wrote:
Week Two Power Rankings

Rank (Last Week)

1. (3) JP.  Lost to Semiahmoo in D4 final.  Defeated Bishop Carroll in D4 semi without Yvonne Ejim. No tournament next weekend.
2. (2) Bishop Carroll.  Lost to JP in a competitive game in D4 semi and beat SACHS by 20 or so in D4 third place game.  Probably would beat JP with Ejim, but rankings honour the result.  Vs Aberhart on Tuesday.  Vs Centennial Thursday.
3. (1) SACHS.  Lost to Semiahmoo (#3 in BC in Tsumura preseason rankings) in D4 semi.  Lost to Bishop Carroll in D4 third place game.  Grade 10s look to be fitting in well already.  Will be interested to see them against JP - might bet on SACHS.  BC tournament next weekend.
4. (4) Western.  Lost to Semiahmoo and defeated Mt. Baker.  Looked solid as expected.  Vs St Francis on Monday.  Vs Thirsk on Thursday.  SAIT Silver Belle next weekend.
5. (5) Centennial.  Vs Bowness Tuesday.  Vs Bishop Carroll Thursday.
6. (6) Magrath.  No league games this week.  At Ross Shep tournament next weekend.
7. ( 8 )LCI.  Vs Catholic Central Tuesday.  No tournament this weekend.
8. (10) Raymond. Vs Myers (3A) Thursday
9. (NR) Medicine Hat.  Def St. Joseph’s (Saskatchewan) in semi and lost in final of Mike Dea Classic to Leboldus (Saskatchewan).  Vs Catholic Central on Wednesday.  Host Green & White tournament next weekend.
10. (HM) St. Mary’s.  Good performance in loss to JP followed by scrappy win over St. Francis.  Vs Bishop Grandin Tuesday.

HM (7) Paul Kane.  Defeated Scona and lost to Leboldus (Saskatchewan) in semi and St. Joseph’s (Saskatchewan) in third place game at Mike Dea Classic.
HM (HM) Aberhart.  Win in exhibition over Bowness.  Vs Bishop Carroll on Tuesday.  SAIT Silver Belle next weekend.
HM (HM) Cardston.  Vs Churchill on Wednesday.  SAIT Silver Belle next weekend.
HM (HM) Scona.  Lost to Paul Kane by 13 in Mike Dea Classic quarters.  Narrow win over Leduc in consolation semi.
HM (HM) Hunting Hills.

Dropping out: (9) St. Francis - likely to be back as more games are played.

Metro Athletics - please post the regular season schedule.  Same goes for tournaments - Ross Shep Totem and Med Hat Green & White post draws please.

Awesome. Well thought out. Can you keep doing this?
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oldman



Posts : 64
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:49 pm

My predictions for Div 1 Calgary:

1. Centennial - I still like them over Carroll, but BC has impressed me so far.
2. Carroll - 2 superstars.
3. Western - Nobody on par with Carroll's 2, but loads of depth.
4. Mary's - At this point, they look like the favourite to secure 4th, but they could get bumped.
5. Francis - Depth. So far have been shaky, so they could rise to 4th, or slip lower.
6. Abe - Not like last year, but always a good program.
7. Bowness - Watch out. These girls play together well, and they've got a lot of talent. Could sneak up to 4th.
8. Grandin - Big drop off here. Will battle with Thirsk for the basement.
9. Thirsk - See Grandin.
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jefferlum



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Join date : 2018-12-04

PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:24 pm

Do we know of any tournaments this before Christmas for any of these Calgary teams?
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:29 pm

Article about Paul Kane:

https://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/blues-back-in-business-20181130
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:41 pm

Article about Medicine Hat:

https://chatnewstoday.ca/article/583232/hat-high-kwahommies-building-last-years-provincials-experience
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:53 pm

Article about Foothills Comp:

https://www.okotoksonline.com/local-sports/falcons-girls-open-basketball-season-strong
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:57 pm

Article about WR Meyers (3A):

http://www.tabertimes.com/sports/2018/12/05/rebels-girls-begin-provincial-defence/
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:00 pm

Article about Raymond and Magrath:

http://www.westwindweekly.com/sports/2018/12/06/comets-open-season-tonight-in-taber-against-w-r-myers/
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:03 pm

Article about Cardston:

https://lethbridgeherald.com/sports/lethbridge-sports/2018/12/06/cougars-open-season-with-convincing-victory/
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westwind Bball



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PostSubject: Calgary    Yesterday at 11:32 am

Centennial girls play in the cardston tournament in response to wondering about Calgary teams playing outside Calgary also have the JP tournament next week which has LCI along with Western Canada and the top three teams from Edmonton. On a different note I have to think Bishop Carroll is the favorite in Calgary after beating Centennial 73 to 35 in league play.
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trifecta3



Posts : 35
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Yesterday at 11:50 am

Week Three Power Rankings

Rank (Last Week)

1. (1) JP.  No games.  Vs Paul Kane Monday and Vs Scona on Wednesday.  REB on the weekend - the favourite to win at home.
2. (2) Bishop Carroll.  Def Aberhart by 17 and crushed Centennial by almost 40.  Vs Thirsk on Tuesday.  Carroll tournament this weekend without Yvonne.
3. (3) SACHS.  Third place in Victoria Xmas tournament.  Vs Archbishop MacDonald Wednesday and REB on the weekend.  Will be missing 3 of top six players at REB.
4. (4) Western. Beat St. Francis and Thirsk both by 30+.  Won SAIT Silver Belle def Bowness by 30+ and def Cardston by 5.  Vs Bowness Tuesday.  Potential REB semi match up with JP looming.
5. (6) Magrath.  No league games this past week.  Won Ross Shep tournament easily - def Ross Shep by 38 and Foothills Comp by 29. Vs Catholic Central on Wednesday.  From what I saw, I am not convinced that they are the best in the South.  Cardston Classic next weekend will help sort out the order of the South.
6. (HM) Cardston.  Crushed Churchill.  Def Aberhart by 20.  Lost to Western in SAIT Silver Belle final by 5.  No league games this week.  Cardston Classic this weekend.
7. (7) LCI.  Def Catholic Central easily.  Vs Med Hat Monday.  REB this weekend.
8. ( 8 ) Raymond. Def Myers (3A).  Vs Churchill Wednesday.  Cardston Classic next weekend.
9. (9) Medicine Hat.  Def. Catholic Central.  No news on Green & White tourney results but field was weak.  Vs LCI Monday and vs Myers (3A) Wednesday.
10. (10) St. Mary’s.  Clobbered Bishop Grandin.  Vs Abe on Monday.

HM (5) Centennial.  Def Bowness by 3 and got badly beaten by Bishop Carroll.  Clearly not as good as preseason ranking.  Don’t belong in the same tier in Calgary as Carroll and Western.  May be better than St. Mary’s but the Saints did nothing to deserve to drop.  No league games this week.  Opportunity to earn a spot with wins over South teams at Cardston Classic.
HM (HM) Paul Kane. No games last week.  Vs JP Monday and Vs Harry Ainlay Wednesday.  REB on the weekend.
HM (HM) Aberhart.  Lost to Bishop Carroll.  SAIT Silver Belle third place - lost by 20 to Cardston and def Bowness by 3.  Vs St. Mary’s on Monday.  Vs Bowness on Thursday.  Carroll tournament this weekend.
HM (NR) Foothills Composite.  D4 consolation winner a week ago and Ross Shep Totem finalist this week.  Def Leduc by 9 after being up by over 20 and lost to Magrath by 29.
(HM) Hunting Hills.  Will drop out if they don’t play somebody that matters soon - preseason impressions only last so long.  Only stay in rankings because no one else has made a strong case.

Dropping Out:

(HM) Scona.  Lost to Leduc in first round of Ross Shep Totem tournament.  Leduc does not move into rankings because of loss to Foothills Comp.  That leaves only three Edmonton area teams in the rankings which is unusual, but fair.  The results validate my preseason view that quality drops off a cliff after the top three in the Edmonton area.  And (see hoopsab’s latest post in the School Boundaries thread) that’s what you get when 13 of the top 15 players in the area go to only two schools.  I am all for school choice, but the consequence is super teams and no depth to the league.

Notes

I want to explain how I treat games where teams are missing players for whatever reason (sickness, injury, writing SAT, Basketball Canada ID camp, etc).  My policy at this stage of the season is for the rankings to reflect the results, not what I think might be the correct ranking if all teams were at full strength.  Later on when teams have played more than once and there is a larger body of work, results where players were missing can be put in perspective.  For example, if SACHS performs poorly in REB because they are missing players, they will drop.  SACHS will, no doubt, play many of the top 10 teams when at full strength in January and February and have an opportunity to move up.
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Yesterday at 12:06 pm

I love the weekly rankings! I don't personally follow women's HS bball in AB closely enough to know about what is going on with all the teams so I really appreciate these rankings - they are well thought out too! Sounds like REB and Cougar Classic may shake things up for next week.

I'll just mention that Foothills also has an 8 pt loss to HTA who is currently undefeated (although against weak competition except for Foothills).
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Yesterday at 12:27 pm

Thanks for the HTA score. I will try to keep an eye on them. Are they going to play any good competition outside their league? I would still give Foothills the HM because they have played a good non-league schedule to get tested.
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Yesterday at 12:45 pm

I'm not sure of their tournament schedule other than the home tournament which they won (where they beat Foothills in semis and McCoy in the Final). Hopefully they play some tougher tournaments because the Foothills Athletic Council is always a weak league, especially since Foothills doesn't play in it anymore.
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Today at 1:04 am

Missing from my earlier post - Medicine Hat lost to Myers in the Green & White final.
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