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 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions

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Who is your favourite for 4A girls?
JP
14%
 14% [ 1 ]
Kane
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
SACHS
43%
 43% [ 3 ]
LCI
14%
 14% [ 1 ]
Magrath
14%
 14% [ 1 ]
Cardston
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Centennial
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Carroll
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Western
0%
 0% [ 0 ]
Other
14%
 14% [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 7
 

AuthorMessage
trifecta3



Posts : 49
Join date : 2014-08-21

PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:14 pm

https://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/skyhawks-embrace-reb-challenge-20181214
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:16 pm

https://lethbridgeherald.com/sports/lethbridge-sports/2018/12/17/cardston-cougars-boys-basketball-team-wins-their-tournament/
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:55 am

oldman wrote:
Big games this week that will help sort out where everyone falls:

Calgary:
Bowness @ Francis tonight
Centennial @ Abe tonight
Abe @ Francis Thurs
Centennial @ Mary's Thurs
Western @ Carroll Thurs

South:
Cardston @ LCI Weds
Magrath @ Cardston Thurs
Med Hat @ Raymond Thurs
LCI @ Myers Thurs

Edmonton doesn't have any epic matches this week.  Mostly strong teams against weaker ones.

Francis beat Bowness handedly, but Bowness was missing their best player.
Centennial edged Abe
Francis beat Abe; I don't know the score, but I heard it was a solid win.
Centennial cruised past Mary's. I don't know why; was Mary's bad? Was Centennial good? Fouls? Injuries?
Carroll beat Western. I guess Ejim is healthy again?

Cardston edged LCI
Magrath crushed Cardston
Raymond edged Med Hat
Myers beat LCI

What I'd guess from the results:

It would suggest that Mary's/Francis/Abe might depend on current form. Abe beat Mary's, but lost to Francis. Francis was edged by one against Mary's in the D4. The 4th provincial spot in Calgary might be a dogfight.

A healthy Carroll is tough to beat. Centennial is better than early results suggested, and both them & Western are deep, but they lack the stars Carroll has. These 3 schools should be 1-2-3 in Calgary. At this point, I'd say it's 1. Carroll, 2. Western, 3. Centennial 4. Mary's/Francis/Abe

Magrath looks to be tough in the South. I'd like to see how they are against Raymond.

This is not LCI's year.
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el tigre



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:58 pm

In the south I think Magrath and Raymond are the front runners for sure. I'm not sure they can compete with the top of the province just yet, but you know those teams will always work hard and could surprise some teams. Medicine Hat will always work hard and make opposing teams have to work. I wouldn't completely write off LCI just yet as they have been playing without two of their (I'm assuming) starters all season due to knee injuries. Not sure where their health is at, but if they can get healthy sooner than later, it could make a difference.
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:09 pm

Xmas Break Power Rankings

Rank (Last)

1. (4) Bishop Carroll.  Only losses have come when missing Ejim.  A dominant team when at full strength.  Def Western by 14.  Tough ranking decision because Carroll beat Western who beat JP who beat Carroll.  The tie breakers are that JP’s win came with Carroll minus Ejim and Western beat JP solidly at JP.
2. (1) Western.  Lost to Carroll by 14.  Exceeded preseason expectations.  Belong at #2 by reason of REB win over JP at JP.
3. (2) JP.  Have earned the top spot in Edmonton.  Lots of size, but inconsistency as a result of youth makes it hard to see them winning Provincials.
4. (3) SACHS.  Loss by 22 to Carroll at D4 is the only real black mark on their record in the first half.  Other losses came while missing key players.  I believe that SACHS will overtake JP and Western in the second half of season because of superior talent and will be very close with Carroll.
5. (5) Centennial.  Def St. Mary’s easily.  Seem to have fixed whatever was wrong at the start of the season.  Have established themselves as a solid third place in Calgary and may yet pose a challenge to Western and Carroll.
6. (6) Raymond.  Best of the South so far but a clear notch below the top 5.  Lack size and depth to challenge the best.
7. (7) Magrath.  Clear second in the South.  Would like to see them tested against top Calgary and Edmonton teams.
8. (9) Medicine Hat.  Lost to Raymond by 3.  Ranked on the strength of Mike Dea tourney performance at start of season and beating LCI.  Those results may not look as impressive a month from now.
9. (10) Paul Kane.  Have established themselves as the clear third Edmonton team.  30+ point loss to Western at REB and double OT win vs SACHS minus key players shows that PK doesn’t belong in the top tier.  PK has the potential to rise as high as #5.
10. ( 8 )Cardston.  Lost to Magrath by 24.  At risk of dropping to HM.

HM (NR) St. Francis.  Def Bowness and Abe.  Back in the rankings because they are taking care of business in league play.  Have the talent to finish fourth in Calgary and move into the the top 10.
HM (HM) Aberhart.  Have been knocking on the door of the top 10 all season.  Loss to Cardston and bad loss to Salisbury at Carroll tournament kept them out.  Now sitting behind St. Francis because of loss this week.  Will be an up hill battle to get into top 10.
HM (HM) St. Mary’s.  Lost to Centennial by 24.  Not pretty to watch, but they compete hard.  Don’t see them returning to the top 10.
HM (HM) Salisbury.  Loss to JP by 8 validates HM standing.
HM (HM) LCI.  Lost to Myers by 5. Currently sitting in 6th in the South league.  In danger of falling out of these rankings.  I am not sure if the South is good enough to have four ranked teams plus an HM.

Dropping Out:

(HM) Foothills Composite.  No really strong results.  Loss in consolation at Cardston tournament suggests that they are better unranked.

Notes

A question is whether there are any other teams with less visibility that deserve consideration.  I admit that the three major leagues (Calgary, Edmonton, South) get most of my attention.  Others that I have considered: Lindsay Thurber (weak performance at SAIT), Hunting Hills (HM preseason based on talent, but haven’t played any real competition), HTA (did poorly at the Carroll tournament).
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:24 am

https://lethbridgeherald.com/sports/lethbridge-sports/2018/12/21/pandas-beat-cougars-2/
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:20 am

https://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/tournament-weekend-for-basketball-at-pk-20190108
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:44 am

Early Jan league play:

Carroll beat Francis by 24.
Western beat Mary's by 28.

Seems there is a clear top 3 (I'd include Centennial) in Calgary. I still think Francis & Mary's will scrap it out for 4th place. Both can beat Abe.

Big games coming up:

Western vs Centennial tomorrow. I think we'll learn who the 2nd best team in Calgary is.
Mary's vs Carroll next week - Mary's will be in tough if Carroll has a full lineup. I'd almost suggest to check to see how much they lose by as a gauge. Mary's can be scrappy, so could actually keep it close.
Abe vs Western next week.

In the South, we might learn a thing or two from Med Hat's game against Myers today, but the big ones are next week - LCI vs Raymond & Magrath vs Med Hat.

In Edmonton - does Strathcona beating Leduc mean much?

Kane plays Leduc today.
SACHS plays Leduc next week.
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:09 pm

If you have tournament results from this weekend, please post. No tournaments this weekend are streaming or have websites.
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Gohawksgo



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:51 pm

In the pk invitational today pk beat jp by 1 in OT and Sachs beat Caroll by 23. Sachs pk final
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:30 pm

Thanks. Please update with final and third place results when done.
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Gohawksgo



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:20 am

Sachs beats pk for gold by over 40, caroll beat jp by 9 for the bronze.
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el tigre



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:46 am

South this weekend at Chinook tournament

Lacombe over Chinook
Cardston over McCoy by 10-15
Raymond over Swift Current by a lot
LCI over Mt Baker by about 30

Cardston over Lacombe by a lot in semi
LCI over Raymond in semi by about 8

Raymond over Lacombe by 25+ in 3rd place game

LCI over Cardston in final by 5
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trifecta3



Posts : 49
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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:01 pm

January 13 Power Rankings

Rank (Last)

1. (4) SACHS.  Def Bishop Carroll by 23 in PK semi and def PK by 40 in final.  SACHS now 1-1 vs BC but wins in January tell us more than wins in early December.  Finally playing like the team I thought they were preseason.
2. (1) Bishop Carroll.  Def St. Francis by 24. Lost to SACHS by 23 in PK semi.  Def JP in third place game by 10.
3. (5) Centennial.  Def Grandin by 59.  Def Western by 8.  Next week vs Thirsk.
4. (2) Western.  Def St. Mary’s by 28.  Lost to Centennial by 8.  Next week vs Abe.
5. (3) JP.   Def both Archbishops easily in league play.  Lost by 1 in OT in PK semi to PK.  Lost by 10 to BC in 3rd place game.  Next week vs Leduc.
6. (9) Paul Kane.  Def Leduc easily in league play.  Def JP by 1 in OT in PK semi.  Lost to SACHS by 40 in final.  Behind JP because loss to JP in league play counts for more than OT win in home tournament, but the teams are closer than I had thought.
7. (6) Raymond. Def Churchill.  Lost to LCI by 8 at Chinook tournament.  Next week vs LCI and WR Myers.
8. (7) Magrath.  Def CCH.  Next week vs Med Hat and LCI.
9. (HM) Salisbury.  Def ABM and Spruce Grove.  Won Bev Facey tournament easily.  Have played a soft schedule, but are getting wins and avoiding bad losses.
10. (HM) LCI.  No games this week.  Won Chinook tournament beating Raymond by 8 and Cardston by 5.  Next week vs Raymond and Magrath.

HM (10) Cardston.  No league games this week.  Lost to LCI at Chinook tournament.  Next week vs CCH and Churchill.
HM (HM) St. Francis.  Lost to Bishop Carroll by 24.
HM (8 ) Medicine Hat.  Lost to WR Myers (3A); lost to LaCrete (2A) at PK tourney.  Next week vs Magrath and CCH.
HM (HM) Aberhart.  Def Grandin by 21.  Next week vs Western.
HM (HM) St. Mary’s.  Lost to Western by 28.  Lost to SACHs by a lot.  Def Scona.  Lost to La Crete (2A).
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oldman



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:04 pm

Was Carroll healthy for their tournament games vs SACHS & JP?  Was Ejim playing?

...and what's up with La Crete? How does a small town from way-north Alberta field a competitive basketball program?
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:08 pm

Ejim played.

La Crete has been competitive in club tournaments, so it isn’t a big surprise. Not sure how they do it - probably a dedicated coach and a core group of motivated players.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:02 pm

Was Bishop Carrol at full strength? Seems like a big turnaround for SACHS. 43 point swing?
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Gohawksgo



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:20 pm

As far as I could tell they were. The guard , post and Yvonne were all dressed and played. It was just a flip. Sachs hit everything and BC didn’t . Yvonne could do no wrong in the d4 and she struggled this go around.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:11 am

Its nice to see people's ideas about ranking before the ranking comes out. All 3 (4A boys, 4A girls, 3A girls) so far look like they'll be fairly accurate which means a lot of time filtering through data. Someone needs to take an interest in 3A boys and post something.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:52 pm

Does tonight's games between Magrath/Medicine Hat, LCI/Raymond count toward this ranking period?
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:23 pm

No, they will be applied on the 2nd rankings. The 1st rankings covers up to and including January 15 this year.
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Gohawksgo



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:49 pm

Any scores from those games yet?
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:28 am

Gohawksgo wrote:
Any scores from those games yet?

Scores up now at South hoops.ca

Raymond by 2 over LCI
Magrath by 12 over Med Hat
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:29 pm

@trifecta3 Another amazing prediction. Minor order switching. 1 wrong on the HM.

Rank Team
1 St. Albert Catholic High, St. Albert Edmonton Metro
2 Bishop Carroll, Calgary Calgary
3 Centennial High School, Calgary Calgary
4 Magrath School, Magrath South
5 Western Canada, Calgary Calgary
6 Jasper Place, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
7 Raymond High, Raymond South
8 Paul Kane High, St. Albert Edmonton Metro
9 Lethbridge Collegiate Institute, Lethbridge South
10 Salisbury Composite, Sherwood Park Edmonton Metro
Honorable Mentions
Cardston High, Cardston South
William Aberhart, Calgary Calgary
St. Mary (Calgary), Calgary Calgary
Strathcona High School, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Medicine Hat High, Medicine Hat
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trifecta3



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PostSubject: Re: 4A Girls 2018-19 Predictions   Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:51 pm

12321 wrote:
@trifecta3 Another amazing prediction. Minor order switching. 1 wrong on the HM.

Rank Team
1 St. Albert Catholic High, St. Albert Edmonton Metro
2 Bishop Carroll, Calgary Calgary
3 Centennial High School, Calgary Calgary
4 Magrath School, Magrath South
5 Western Canada, Calgary Calgary
6 Jasper Place, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
7 Raymond High, Raymond South
8 Paul Kane High, St. Albert Edmonton Metro
9 Lethbridge Collegiate Institute, Lethbridge South
10 Salisbury Composite, Sherwood Park Edmonton Metro
Honorable Mentions
Cardston High, Cardston South
William Aberhart, Calgary Calgary
St. Mary (Calgary), Calgary Calgary
Strathcona High School, Edmonton Edmonton Metro
Medicine Hat High, Medicine Hat

The ranking of Magrath is too high, but it is arguable based on the results. Tournaments in the next ranking period should test that out. I don’t think Magrath is as good as Western or JP, but that is hard to say for sure because of the lack of results that crossover.

I would pick LCI over Salisbury easily if LCI was healthy, but it seems dubious to me on the results from the period. Hard to see LCI at 9th in Province when they are 1-5 in league play.

Scona as HM instead of St. Francis looks reasonable because both are 4-2 in league play and have no notable success in tournament play. That said, there is no way that Scona is as good as St. Francis. I hope that we get match ups that help to sort this out.

The ASAA rankings are always a bit problematic because each ranker lobbies for teams from their own zone. More results in subsequent ranking periods should reduce the scope for disagreement.
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