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 4A 1st Rankings - Boys

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GoKnights



Posts : 87
Join date : 2014-12-08

PostSubject: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:31 pm

With First Rankings coming out this week, any thoughts on what they will look like? For the most part it seems up for grabs as there hasn't been a ton of head to head match ups amongst the top teams. I may be missing some results from my predictions.

My guess would be
1. JP (Wins over BOB, St. Mary's, Shep, only loss to tough team from Ontario)
2. BOB (wins over LCI, Centennial, loss to JP)
3. McNally (wins over Ainlay, St. Mary's x2, Western x2, Centennial x2, no losses as far as I’m aware)
4. Cardston (wins over LCI x2, Med Hat x2, Raymond, no losses as far as I’m aware)
5. Ainlay (6-0 in league, loss to McNally)
6. St. Mary's (wins over LCI, Western, Shep, losses to JP and McNally x2)
7. Western (win over Fr. Lacombe, Pearson, losses to McNally x2 and St. Mary’s)
8. STFX (Wins over Fr. Lacombe, Med Hat, losses to Edmonton Christian, Raymond)
9. Med Hat (Wins over LCI, Raymond x2, Shep, losses to LCI, Cardston, STFX)
10. LCI (Wins over Raymond x2, Med Hat, losses to Cardston x2, St. Mary’s, BOB, Centennial)

HM  Centennial (Wins over LCI, Fr. Lacombe, losses to All Saints, BOB, McNally x2)
HM  Raymond (Win over STFX, losses to Cardston, LCI x2, Med Hat x2, Churchill)
HM  Pearson (5-0 in league (but no significant wins), Losses to Western and Centennial)
HM  Fr. Lacombe (3-1 in league, Winner of All Saints tournament, Losses to Centennial, Western, STFX)
HM  Shep (5-1 in league (but no significant wins), Losses to Edmonton Christian, JP, St. Mary’s, Med Hat, Bad loss to Magrath)


Last edited by GoKnights on Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:43 pm

Bishop McNally beat Harry Ainlay in the BRIT final 66-57 last night.
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:13 pm

Thanks. I will move Ainlay down to 5 then, and move McNally to 3.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:38 pm

How are McNally and Cardston behind JP and BOB? Is it because they've played so many non-asaa teams? I don't see the logic. At the end of the day its about wins and losses. Teams that have won games have to be ahead of teams with losses, especially against top 10 competition.

1. Cardston
2. McNally
3. JP
4. BOB
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:58 pm

You can certainly make the argument for McNally, but I don't think you can for Cardston. Cardston is undefeated but has had some questionable results (only beat Chinook by 11, only beat Scona by 1). Not sure if you've seen JP play but they looked very impressive at REB and have destroyed everyone in Edmonton. At this point in the season where there are little head to head games one has to make assumptions based on margin of victory. Any thoughts on the rest? Quality goes down after the Top 5 IMO.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:21 am

It is early in the season and not that important right now since there are rules on how far teams can drop or rise from ranking period to ranking period. This is one of the old arguments regarding ranking. Should good teams press weaker team, keep their starters in and try to thump teams by as much as possible in order to get ranked higher? I think this is a dangerous precedent. I assume you're a ranker given your pseudonym. When is a win not good enough? Do point spreads push us toward unsportsmanlike coaching behaviour? If you're up 30 going into the 4th should you keep your starters in and press to maintain or increase the spread or is it time to play the end of the bench even though it might drop down to a 15 pt win by the end of the game? Does it really matter if the margin of victory is 15 points or 40 points?
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mambamentality



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:15 am

You make a good point. I had the chance to watch Pearson vs Brooks in the final of the PIT tournament and Pearson had a 20 point lead until they cleared out the starters. They won the game by 11 or 12? Scores can definitely be deceiving dependant on game flow and how early/large a lead can get.
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calgary-hoops



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:12 am

I agree with 12321. Wins have to be the benchmark of a good team first. Then you look at who the teams they have won against have beaten. Sure there will be outliers. Good teams can lose a game to mediocre  teams once or twice. Even great teams can. That's sport. But volume of wins say a lot more about a team than whether they win by 40 or 15. If you're ranking teams you want to put the teams that can win games, not because their 11-15 players are better than their opponents 11-15 players. Once we get to provincials, teams are going 7-8 deep, not 15.
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:43 pm

I would put the undefeated teams at 1 and 2. NcNally first, Cardston second. Either way it doesn't matter.
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:40 pm

I'm glad we're having this discussion because it definitely does raise some of the debates of ranking teams (and I will stress that at the end of the day all that really matters is who cuts down the nets in the end). Anyone else wanna give the Top 10 + HM a shot?

12321 - I am not the ranker so I can't speak to how the actual rankings will play out - just make fun predictions. Like you said, it doesn't matter where they are ranked at this point - we will find out who the best teams are as the top teams play each other.

Calgary-hoops - The issue is that all of the Top 4 teams have been winning with regularity. JP and BOB only have 1 loss each, but in JP's case it was against a team from Ontario. Why should JP be punished for losing to a top team from out of province? None of the other top teams have played that level of competition (Cardston hasn't even played against another Top 8 team according to the rankings I made).

As for the point spread, it does matter to a point IMO. Yes, when you get to things like zones or provincials, a win is a win. However, for the purposes of ranking teams in the early stages of the season it should have some factor. I'm not saying we should be differentiating between 30 pt wins and 70 pt wins. However, JP beat Scona by 50+ and Cardston beat them by 1 (which indicates they played the starters to the end). How can you say that those wins are the same? Also according to the ASAA website 1st rankings are based on the following in order (Body of work includes record) which does include comparisons and strength of schedule:

1. Body of Work
2. Strength of Schedule
3. Head to Head
4. Common Opponents

At the end of the day, the first rankings won't mean much but still fun to engage in healthy debate over it!
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:31 am

Common opponents and head to head seem to be less and less common. Is it the cost of programs that keep teams from travelling more than once or perhaps twice a year? Is the reduction in games allowed an issue?
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12321



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:01 pm

How is Shep an HM?
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:51 am

Calgary only permits 2 out of city tournaments per year which is definitely part of it as teams have to carefully select when they will play.

As for Shep, unfortunately I couldn't really think of a team which really earned that HM spot so I went with them based off of their 5-1 league record. I considered other teams such as Churchill, Foothills, Manning and others but none have particularly good resumes so I went with Shep (who also has a poor resume). It is possible there is a rural or Red Deer team that I haven't heard anything about that should definitely be ahead of Shep and others for the final HM spot. Not sold on Shep at all but not a lot of great options this year.
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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:25 pm

@GoKnights Awesome job at the predictions. Some minor differences and only Western was out of place.
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GoKnights



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PostSubject: Re: 4A 1st Rankings - Boys   Yesterday at 7:17 pm

Thanks. A little surprised Centennial is ranked ahead of Western but not a big deal at this stage. Definitely will be some clarity in the next rankings as the Bobcat Bowl (Feb 1-2) brings 4 Top 10 teams (BOB, Cardston, McNally, LCI) and 2 HM teams (Shep, Fr. Lacombe).

Some notable results from ranking period 2 already include:

#5 BOB over All Saints (#3 ranked 3A team) by 35, #4 Ainlay over #8 STFX by 17, unranked Churchill over HM Fr. Lacombe by 2, HM Shep over EC (#1 ranked 3A team) by 6.
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